气象2016，Vol.42Issue(5)：614-620,7.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2016.05.011
RCP4．5情景下长江上游流域未来气候变化及其对径流的影响
Future Climate Change and Its Impact on Runoff in the Upper Reaches of the Yangtze River Under RCP4 .5 Scenario
摘要
Abstract
Based on the daily meteorological data of 50 weather stations and daily runoff data from the Cun-tan Gauging Station,HBV and SWAT hydrological models were calibrated and validated by using DEM, land use data and soil texture information.Possible impact of future climate change on river runoff was an-alyzed through forcing HBV and SWAT models by CCLM dynamic downscaled climatic data.The results show that both of HBV and SWAT models are suitable for simulating monthly river runoff in the Cuntan catchment,with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient of about 0.90 in the calibration and validation period. But it is also clear that the SWAT is good at simulating floodpeak value while HBV has good performanceon baseflow value.Compared with baseline period (1986-2005),mean temperature,maximum tempera-ture and minimum temperature in the Cuntan catchment will increase obviously with persistent rising trend by CCLM in 2011-2040 under RCP4.5 scenario.Annual precipitation is also expected to rise a bit in 2011-2040,but will decrease slightly since 2030.From the ensemble mean of the two hydrological modeling results and changes in runoff quantile,we can see that the annual runoff will increase 14.2% with proba-bility of higher flood volumes in 2011-2040 than 1986-2005.关键词
气候变化/水文模拟/寸滩以上流域Key words
climate change/hydrological simulation/the Cuntan catchment分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
黄金龙,王艳君,苏布达,翟建青..RCP4．5情景下长江上游流域未来气候变化及其对径流的影响[J].气象,2016,42(5):614-620,7.基金项目
国家重点基础研究发展计划（973计划）（2013CB430205和2012CB955903）及中德合作组项目GZ912共同资助 （）
