气象科技进展2016，Vol.6Issue(3)：123-133,11.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.2095-1973.2016.03.017
气候变化影响下的流域水循环：以长江和黄河典型流域为例
Impact of Climate Change on Hydrological Cycle：Case Studies in the Yangtze River and Yellow River Basins
摘要
Abstract
Based upon adaptive assessment of different GCMs recommended by IPCC, the future climate change scenarios were generated by using SDSM and ASD, respectively, and were used to drive the distributed hydrological model VIC and SWAT. The VIC was applied for simulating hydrological processes in the Taihu basin, which is selected as the typical watershed of the Yangtze River basin. The SWAT model was run for simulatimg hydrology in the upper reaches of the Yellow River basin. Then, the impact of climate change on hydrological cycle was quantitatively investigated. Results show that the methods adopted in this study for GCMs adaptive assessment and downscaling could reduce uncertainties effectively. It was detected that a decreasing trend in the upper reaches of the Yellow River basin; a slightly decreasing trend in the lower reaches, of the Yangtze River Basin, but with a signiifcant increasing trend in the southeast of the Taihu basin during lfood seasons for the future periods (2046-2065 and 2081-2100), comparing with the runoff in the baseline period (1961-1990). These results are of greatly significance for adapting climate change in different river basins for the future.关键词
气候变化/水循环/降尺度/水文模型/大气环流模式Key words
climate change/hydrological cycle/downscaling/hydrological model/General Circulation Model (GCM)引用本文复制引用
徐宗学,刘浏..气候变化影响下的流域水循环：以长江和黄河典型流域为例[J].气象科技进展,2016,6(3):123-133,11.基金项目
国家重点基础研究发展计划（2010CB428402）；国家自然科学基金项目（51509247）；高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金 （）
