电力系统自动化2016，Vol.40Issue(12)：53-61,9.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20160317009
基于D-S理论的主动配电网不确定性潮流及运行风险分析
D-S Theory Based Uncertainty Flow Calculation and Operational Risk Analysis for Active Distribution Network
摘要
Abstract
A joint possibilitic-probabilistic uncertainty power flow model based on D-S theory is developed.Classified models are built for input variables of both probability and possibility according to different characteristics of various distributed energy and loads,and an unscented transformation (UT) method as well asα-cut set algorithm is used respectively for solving the uncertainty power flow problem.The off limits of uncertainty power flow results are discussed and an operational risk analysis system with respect to power loss is set up.By improved IEEE 33-bus power distribution system model simulation, verifications of three-phase balanced and unbalanced cases are made of the necessity of the joint uncertainty model and the timeliness of the algorithms,and risk buses and branches are picked up to realize risk perception of the active distribution network.关键词
D-S理论/概率不确定性/可能不确定性/运行风险Key words
D-S theory/probabilistic uncertainty/possibilistic uncertainty/operational risk引用本文复制引用
蒲天骄,赵灿,陈乃仕,董雷..基于D-S理论的主动配电网不确定性潮流及运行风险分析[J].电力系统自动化,2016,40(12):53-61,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51577096) （51577096）
北京市自然科学基金资助项目(3161002) （3161002）
国家电网公司基础前瞻项目(DZ71-15-004)。@@@@This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.51577096),Beijing Natural Science Foundation(No.3161002)and Basic and Prospective Program of State Grid Corporation of China(No.DZ71-15-004) （DZ71-15-004）
