中国生态农业学报2016，Vol.24Issue(7)：944-956,13.DOI:10.13930/j.cnki.cjea.151317
基于云模型的冬小麦气候适宜度评价方法*--以安徽省宿州市为例
Evaluation of climate suitability of winter wheat based on cloud model analysis- A case study of Suzhou, Anhui Province
摘要
Abstract
AbstractBased on three limiting indexes (light, temperature and water), an evaluation system was set up along with its parameters for normal cloud models and the “3En” rule to evaluate the suitability of winter wheat to climatic factors. The weighted comprehensive assessment and geometric mean method were used to determine the climate suitability of winter wheat for the whole growth period, while the integral regression method was used to determine the weight coefficients for each growth stage. The calculated values were analyzed in relation to winter wheat yield in every district of Suzhou City of Anhui Province from 1954 to 2013 and the actual observed yield and its’ components from 1995 to 2013. The results showed that the trapezium cloud model was suitable for air temperature and precipitation suitability evaluation, while the left-half cloud model was suitable for sunshine suitability analysis. There was significantly positive correlation between the climate suitability of winter wheat for the whole growth period and climate-driven yield, 1000-grain weight, kernel number per ear, and plant height at milk stage in the study area. The corresponding correlation coefficients were 0.588 0 (P< 0.01), 0.756 1 (P< 0.01), 0.670 7 (P< 0.01) and 0.464 3 (P< 0.05), respectively. The correlation coefficients between the climate suitability and panicle per unit area of winter wheat were 0.558 9 (P< 0.05), 0.649 8 (P< 0.01) and 0.736 1 (P< 0.01) at returning green-jointing stage, jointing-heading stage and heading-milk ripe stage, respectively. There was a significantly positive correlation between climate suitability and kernel number per ear — 0.710 7 (P< 0.01) and 0.744 2 (P< 0.01) at returning green-jointing stage and heading-milk ripe stage, respectively. The suitability of sunshine and precipitation decreased at the rates of 0.005 and 0.008 per decade. However, the suitability of temperature in the study area increased at the rate of 0.028 per decade in 1954–2013. The study laid the scientific reference for evaluating adaptability and developing response strategies of winter wheat to climatic conditions.关键词
冬小麦/云模型/“3En”法则/气候适宜度/气候产量/观测产量/气候因子/生育期/宿州Key words
Winter wheat/Cloud model/‘3En’ rule/Climate suitability/Climatic yield/Observed yield/Climate factor/Growth period/Suzhou city分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
李德,周文鳞,杨霏云..基于云模型的冬小麦气候适宜度评价方法*--以安徽省宿州市为例[J].中国生态农业学报,2016,24(7):944-956,13.基金项目
安徽省气象新技术集成项目(AHXJ201207)和国家公益性(气象)行业专项项目(GYHY201006027)资助* This study was supported by the Project of New Meteorological Technology Integration in Anhui Province (AHXJ201207), and the Special Fund for Meteorological Scientific Research in the Public Interest (GYHY201006027) （AHXJ201207）
