北京林业大学学报2016，Vol.38Issue(5)：23-32,10.DOI:10.13332/j.1000--1522.20150516
基于GARP和MaxEnt的云杉矮槲寄生分布区的预测
Predicting the distribution of dwarf mistletoe (Arceuthobium sichuanense) with GARP and MaxEnt models
摘要
Abstract
Sichuan dwarf mistletoe ( Arceuthobium sichuanense ) is a plant that parasitizes Picea trees. Recently, this dwarf mistletoe has caused serious damage to spruce trees in Sanjiangyuan area, Qinghai Province. In this study, based on the data on the reported sites, we applied GARP and MaxEnt niche models to predict and analyze the distribution area of A. sichuanense in China. The predicted results were then tested by ROC curves. The results showed that the predicted area by GARP model was more extensive while the area by MaxEnt model was more detailed. Thus, GARP and MaxEnt models were combined with a weight ratio 4∶1 to predict the distribution area of A. sichuanense. The AUC value of GARP-MaxEnt model was 0. 937, indicating that the precision of prediction was high. Based on the GARP-MaxEnt prediction model, it is shown that the distribution area of A. sichuanense is mainly in Qinghai, Gansu, Sichuan and Tibet. The junction area of Qinghai, Gansu and Sichuan was the most suitable area for A. sichuanense parasitism. The results will benefit our understanding of the distribution area of A. sichuanense, and have an guiding significance for monitoring the disease and making scientific strategy to control this dwarf mistletoe.关键词
云杉矮槲寄生/GARP/MaxEnt/分布区预测Key words
Arceuthobium sichuanense/GARP/MaxEnt/potential distribution area分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
张超,陈磊,田呈明,李涛,汪荣,杨启青..基于GARP和MaxEnt的云杉矮槲寄生分布区的预测[J].北京林业大学学报,2016,38(5):23-32,10.基金项目
“十二五”国家科技支撑计划项目(2012BAD19B0702)、林业公益性行业科研专项(201204503)。 （2012BAD19B0702）
