摘要
Abstract
To identify the carbon emission driving factors of regional transportation and measure their corresponding contributions,this paper classified the factors into three kind effects, that is scale effect,structure effect and technique effect.A decomposition model based on the extended Kaya identity was established, and the impact of the economic scale, population size, transport structure, transport intensity and energy efficiency on carbon emission were examined in detail with the log mean decompostion index(LMDI)method. Empirical results demonstrated that the economic scale effect, whose contribution ratio reached 96.05% , played a dominant role in increasing carbon emission of regional transportation, followed by the transport structure effect, 48.59%, transport intensity effect,-30.46%, the energy efficiency effect, -15.88% , the population size effect,1.59%. The study suggests that the current policies about energy-saving and emission-reduction of transportation industry should focus on regulating transport structure, improving energy efficiency and reducing transport intensity. Appropriate energy conservation policy recommendations were put forward according the empirical results.关键词
综合交通运输/驱动因素/对数平均迪氏指数法/交通运输碳排放/Kaya恒等式Key words
Integrated transportation/factor decomposition/LMDI method/transport emissions/Kaya identity分类
交通工程
