农业资源与环境学报2016，Vol.33Issue(3)：297-302,6.DOI:10.13254/j.jare.2015.0193
粮食生产潜力中长期预测的验证
Verification of"Comprehensive Prediction Model"in Medium and Long Term Forecast of Grain Production Potential
摘要
Abstract
The"comprehensive prediction model"in medium and long term forecast of grain production potential was verified and discussed systematically by using the grain production data from 1949 to 2014 in 16 typical counties, 6 typical districts, and 31 provinces of China. The results showed as follows:(1)The prediction error reflected the forecast precision of production potential in medium and long term, the chief reason of large prediction error was high yield farmlands had been occupied in developed area, and the planting areas of vegetables, fruits increased greatly, that led to decrease grain yield in medium and long term;(2)To forecast precision of production potential in medium and long term, the scale of national was higher than the scale of province, the scale of province was higher than the scale of district, the scale of district was higher than the scale of county. And it was large differences in precision between different provinces, different districts and different counties respectively, which was concerned to the complementarity of domestic climate and the ability of the farmland resistance to natural disasters;(3)The"comprehensive prediction model"is scientific, accurate and practical, which can be used as a theory and method for forecasting the grain production potential in future.关键词
粮食生产潜力/中长期预测/综合预测模型/验证Key words
grain production potential/medium and long term forecast/comprehensive prediction model/verification分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
刘书田,李敬亚,米长虹,郑宏艳,黄治平,侯彦林,王农,蔡彦明,王铄今..粮食生产潜力中长期预测的验证[J].农业资源与环境学报,2016,33(3):297-302,6.基金项目
中国农业科学院科技创新工程项目(2014-cxgc-hyl) （2014-cxgc-hyl）
