农业现代化研究2016，Vol.37Issue(3)：476-482,7.DOI:10.13872/j.1000-0275.2016.0047
我国粮食台阶增长的构成因素分解
Factor decomposition analysis for the step growth pattern in China’s grain production
摘要
Abstract
China has just achieved the iffth grain increment from 1949 to 2013 and the grain output reached 0.5 billion metric tons in 2013. Applying the grain production calculating model, this paper identified five significant factors contributing to the step growth in China’s grain production. Results show that crop yield improvement is the main contributor to the growth, exerting upward effect before 1978 but downward thereafter. Multiple cropping index and composition of crop varieties mainly have positive effects which were signiifcantly enlarged on the latest increment. The contribution from multiple cropping was even close to that of crop yield. The two negative contributors include grain crop share and cultivated areas, increasingly lowered grain production after 1978 and imposed the most negative effect on the iffth increment. This paper also discussed the possibility and feasibility of future grain increase.关键词
粮食增产/台阶式/因素分解/作物单产/复种指数/粮食品种结构/粮作比/中国Key words
grain production/step growth pattern/factor decomposition/crop yield/multiple cropping index/composition of grain crop varieties/grain crop share/China分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
金涛,钱俊熹,黄丽艳,佴军,陆建飞..我国粮食台阶增长的构成因素分解[J].农业现代化研究,2016,37(3):476-482,7.基金项目
江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目（PAPD）。@@@@The Project Funded by the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions(PAPD) （PAPD）
