农业现代化研究2016，Vol.37Issue(3)：534-541,8.DOI:10.13872/j.1000-0275.2016.0004
鲜活农产品市场替代与整合研究--以水果为例
Study of the substitution and integration of fruit markets by the VECH model
摘要
Abstract
Applying the Impulse Response Function and Variance Decomposition method, this paper analyzed the interaction effect and the dynamic substitution relationship among the apple, banana, and orange markets. In addition, this paper also applied the VECH model to examine the substitution and integration effects of the main fruit markets. Results show that the prices of apple, banana and orange affected each other because of substitution effects. When fruit markets were struck by external shocks, the price increasing trend tended to decrease. Apple showed strong substitution effect for banana and orange. Apple market contributed a lot on alleviating other fruit markets’ upward pressure caused by external factors, that is, 82%, 51% and 71%, respectively. In addition, the three-fruit markets were integrated tightly and steadily and external shock did not affect the substitutions among fruit markets signiifcantly. The above conclusions imply that even there are many kinds of fruits and it is hard to regulate fruit markets. The Government could regulate the apple supply and price to alleviate the whole fruit market lfuctuations because apple as strong substitution effect for other fruits.关键词
水果/替代/整合/VECH模型/VAR模型Key words
fruits/substitution/integration/VECH model/VAR model分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
宋长鸣,周锦,赵晓飞..鲜活农产品市场替代与整合研究--以水果为例[J].农业现代化研究,2016,37(3):534-541,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目（71503093）；国家社会科学基金重大项目（12&ZD048）；中央高校基本科研业务费专项基金资助（2662014BQ044）。@@@@National Natural Science Foundation of China (71503093) （71503093）
the Major Program of the National Social Science Foundation of China (12&ZD048) （12&ZD048）
the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (2662014BQ044) （2662014BQ044）
