水资源与水工程学报2016，Vol.27Issue(1)：40-45,6.DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2016.01.07
未来气候变化影响下的流域面源污染负荷特征响应评估
Estimation of feature response of watershed nonpoint source pollution load under influence of future climate change
摘要
Abstract
The feature of watershed non-point source pollution load response under the influence of future climate change are paid close attention.Taking Shuaishui watershed which locates in the upstream of Xin'an River for example,the paper used generalized watershed loading function (GWLF) model to simulate the nonpoint source pollution load flux of stream flow and TN and TP from 2000 to 2013,and analyzed the allocation of load source.On this basis,the validated GWLF model was used to estimate the changes of stream flow and TN and TP loads in 2020s,2050s,and 2080s under A1FI (highest future emission trajectory) and B1 (lowest future emission trajectory) scenarios based on intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) ~ assessment report.The results show that the future climate change has certain effect on both watershed hydrologic process and non-point pollution loads.The annual amount of water resources first increases and then decreases while the runoff and evaporation gradually increase and the groundwater gradually decrease.Up to 2080s,there will be more water resources under A1FI scenario than that under B1.The annual TN flux also first increase with highest pressure in 2050s and then decrease,and the annual TP flux gradually increases.Both TN and TP have higher loads under A1 FI,which indicated that the emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities would potentially increase watershed non-point source pollution load.关键词
气候变化/面源污染/污染源解析/GWLF/率水/新安江Key words
climate change/non-point source pollution/pollution source analysis/GWLF/Shuaishui River/Xin'an River分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
赵越,卢诚,谢阳村,王玉秋,沙健..未来气候变化影响下的流域面源污染负荷特征响应评估[J].水资源与水工程学报,2016,27(1):40-45,6.基金项目
水污染综合防治-重点流域环境保护监管项目(2110302) （2110302）
天津市水资源与水环境重点实验室开放基金(117-YF11700102) （117-YF11700102）
