水资源与水工程学报2016，Vol.27Issue(1)：82-85,4.DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2016.01.14
基于最小二乘法的鄱阳湖水位流量关系研究
Study on relationship of water level and discharge in Poyang lake based on least square method
摘要
Abstract
To further reveal lake-fiver relation between Poyang Lake and Yangtze River and watershed,the paper took Hukou hydrological station in Poyang Lake as the study object,and chose the impoundment time of Three Gorges Project (2003) as the cutoff point to analyze the quantitative relationship of water level-discharge.Then it applied the least squares method to fit the hydrological data series (monthly average water levels and flows) during 1978-2007 by linear fit,polynomial (cubic) fit and logistic fit.The optimal water level-discharge curve was selected by the coefficient R2.Meanwhile,this paper explored the influence factors of three kinds of fitting curves accuracy,and analyzed the trend of relationship between annually water levels and flows analyzed.The results showed that around 2003,the optimal water level and discharge curve was the polynomial (cubic) fit curve,while accuracy of logistic fit was the worst;the annually average water level at Hukou hydrological station showed a downward trend,while the annually average water flow showed a upward trend;the maximum annually average water level and flow both happened in 1998;the minimum annually average water level and flow took place in 2006 and 1979 respectively.The result can provide certain reference for the rational utilization of water resources and the protection of water environment at Poyang Lake area.关键词
水位流量关系/最小二乘法/湖口水文站/鄱阳湖/三峡工程Key words
relation of water level and discharge/least square method/Hukou hydrological station/Poyang Lake/Three Gorges Project分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
游海林,徐力刚,刘桂林,吴永明,刘丽贞,姜加虎..基于最小二乘法的鄱阳湖水位流量关系研究[J].水资源与水工程学报,2016,27(1):82-85,4.基金项目
国家科技支撑计划项目(2014BAC09B02) （2014BAC09B02）
江苏省科技厅项目(BZ2014005、BE2014739) （BZ2014005、BE2014739）
江苏省环保厅科研课题(2014039) （2014039）
国家自然科学基金项目(41371121、41271034、41561093) （41371121、41271034、41561093）
中国科学院流域地理学重点实验室开放研究基金 （）
江西省科学院科研开发专项博士项目(2014-YYB-31) （2014-YYB-31）
