水资源与水工程学报2016，Vol.27Issue(1)：108-113,6.DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2016.01.19
基于多重演化模式重构的水文预报模型及应用
Application of hydrological forecast model based on multiple evolutionary reconstruction
摘要
Abstract
Due to the long-term effects of human activities and climate change,the hydrological time series exhibit more complicated variation features such as multiple time scales,many ruense dynamic change and self memory function,which increase the uncertainty of hydrological forecast result.The pape established a new hydrologic forecast model based on the empirical mode decomposition model,kernel principal component analysis model and support vector machine model,and choose Nash efficiency,self correlation coefficient,relative error as the multi objective criteria of forecasting precision and parameter calibration.The model was applied to the long-term runoff series at Huayuankou hydrology station of the Yellow River.The results show that the forecast time of the model is long and has better accuracy and practical value.The model can provide a method for the prediction of complex hydrological time series of multiple factors effect.关键词
水文学及水资源/水文预报模型/模式重构Key words
hydrology and water resources/hydrologic forecast model/evolution mode reconstruction分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
王战平,沈冰,吕继强..基于多重演化模式重构的水文预报模型及应用[J].水资源与水工程学报,2016,27(1):108-113,6.基金项目
国家自然科学基金重点项目(50939004) （50939004）
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(310829161006) （310829161006）
