原子能科学技术2016，Vol.50Issue(5)：851-858,8.DOI:10.7538/yzk.2016.50.05.0851
最佳估算方法中不确定度评估关键问题分析
Analysis on Key Issue of Uncertainty Evaluation in Best Estimate Method
摘要
Abstract
The application of best estimate plus the uncertainty (BEPU ) analysis method becomes trend in the nuclear power plant accident analysis and safety review .The pro-cedure of the statistical BEPU method based on input parameters' propagation was sum-marized and the key steps were analyzed .The evaluation process can be divided into five major steps :Defining the target parameter (s) ,identifying important input parameters and their probability distribution ,sampling ,model analysis and target parameter analy-sis .It's believed that phenomenon identification and ranking table (PIRT ) is a suitable method to identify the important input parameters .The distribution of input parameters is usually obtained from the experimental data or expert judgment .The parametric or nonparametric sampling method can be used to determine the required sampling number , and the later greatly decreases sampling number .Its calculation model should be verified sufficiently to demonstrate its applicability .The statistical results of objective parameter provide uncertainty range and the sensitivity of the input parameters .关键词
最佳估算/不确定度/统计方法/敏感性Key words
best estimate/uncertainty/statistical method/sensitivity分类
能源科技引用本文复制引用
陈炼,胡啸,邓程程,黄挺..最佳估算方法中不确定度评估关键问题分析[J].原子能科学技术,2016,50(5):851-858,8.基金项目
核与辐射安全监督管理技术支持项目资助(JD201561) （JD201561）
