张庆军 1王清华 1郭艳 1李云霞 1靳令经 1聂志余1
作者信息
- 1. 200065 上海同济大学附属同济医院神经内科
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
Objective To explore the value of ASTRAL score in predicting prognosis of patients with the different gender, different infarction parts and disease severity at 3-months after onset of acute ischemic stroke (AIS), and compare with the value of predicting of Preadmission Comorbidities, Level of Consciousness, Age, Neurologic Deficit (PLAN) score, and Totaled Health Risks in Vascular Events (THRIVE) score. <br> Methods Related baseline data were recorded and ASTRAL score, PLAN score and THRIVE score were calculated respectively based on different groups according to gender, infarction area, and disease severity, to compare the predictive value of ASTRAL score with PLAN score and THRIVE score in patients with AIS at three months after onset. Model discrimination was quantified by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and compared their predictive value by conducting Z test. <br> Results (1) A total of 513 patients with AIS were enrolled, including 309 cases of male and 204 cases of female;Infarction parts:there were 305 cases of anterior circulation infarction, 153 cases of posterior, and 55 cases of mixed anterior and posterior;Illness severity:there were 260 cases of minor strokes, and 253 cases of non-minor stroke. (2) The AUC of ASTRAL predicting 3 months prognosis in all patients is 0.845. AUC in male group was 0.804, and in female group was 0.878, which showed the Z value of 1.86 (P>0.05);the AUC of predicting anterior, posterior and mixed circulation group were 0.843, 0.814 and 0.857 respectively, with Z values<1.98 (P>0.05). The AUC of predicting minor stroke and non-minor stroke were 0.714 and 0.855 respectively, and the Z value was 4.03 (P=0.000). The AUC of ASTRAL score, PLAN score and THRIVE score predicting all patients were 0.845, 0.783, 0.740, respectively, with Z value>1.98 (P values were 0.000, 0.010, 0.000). Conclusion ASTRAL score could predict 3 months prognosis in patients with AIS, which performs better in predicting minor stroke than PLAN score and THRIVE score.关键词
急性缺血性卒中/预后/ASTRAL评分/受试者工作特征曲线Key words
Acute ischemic stroke/Prognosis/ASTRAL score/Receiver operating characteristic curve
