农业工程学报Issue(18)：179-190,12.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-6819.2013.18.022
气候变化和品种更替对东北地区春玉米产量潜力的影响
Effects of climate change and variety alternative on potential yield of spring maize in Northeast China
摘要
Abstract
A significant warming of the regional climate with a 0.38℃·(10a)-1 rise in annual air temperature has occurred in Northeast China, which is one of the major agricultural production areas in China. It is essential to investigate the impact of climate change on the potential yield for spring maize, of which the total yield accounts for 30%of the nation’s production, and to demonstrate the contributions of new varieties to the yield increases. In this study, potential yields for different varieties of spring maize which was bred in different eras was analyzed, and the impacts of climate change on the potential yield of spring maize and the contributions of the spring maize varieties to the yield increases were analyzed. The APSIM-Maize model was calibrated and validated using the data obtained through field experiments in Lishu Jilin from 2010 to 2011. The validated model was then used to simulate potential yields for different varieties of spring maize. Guarantee rates and partial correlation analysis were introduced to analyze the impact of climate change on maize potential yield. Our results indicated, when the varieties did not change, the 50-year average potential yields of different spring maize varieties, which were bred in the 1960 s, 1970 s, 1980 s, 1990 s, and 2000 s are 7 879 kg/hm2, 11 482 kg/hm-2, 12 148 kg/hm2, 13 400 kg/hm2, and 14 139 kg/hm2 respectively, and increase as the bred eras became later;the average potential yield from 1961 to 2010 was 11 537 kg/hm2 when the varieties changed as new varieties bred. The potential yield decreased when the same hybrid was specified in APSIM for all years, if there were no changes of cultivation and management measures. Climate change showed a negative impact on the potential yield on maize, decreased by 22%-26%, and the decrease of the sunshine hour in the growing period is the main reason that led to a potential yield decline. However if the varieties change continually from 1961 to 2010, the potential yield showed an increasing trend, which indicated that the contributions of new varieties were 46.1%-79.0%. Therefore, the variety improvement of spring maize has compensated for the negative effect of climate change. The increases of the length of the growing period from blossom to maturity, aboveground biomass and harvest index of new varieties were beneficial to yield increases. Therefore, choosing good varieties with a longer growing period and optimizing the planting structure are important approaches to increasing production.关键词
气候变化/模型/粮食/春玉米/产量潜力Key words
climate change/models/grain/spring maize/potential yield分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
吕硕,杨晓光,赵锦,刘志娟,李克南,慕臣英,陈晓超,陈范骏,米国华..气候变化和品种更替对东北地区春玉米产量潜力的影响[J].农业工程学报,2013,(18):179-190,12.基金项目
全球气候变化研究国家重大科学研究计划（973计划）（2010CB951502）；公益性行业（农业）科研专项项目 （）
