中国国土资源经济2015，Vol.28Issue(4)：53-57,69,6.
基于广义灰色模型的内蒙古能源消费预测
The Energy Consumption Forecast of Inner Mongolia Based on the Generalized Grey Model
摘要
Abstract
On the basis of qualitative analysis of energy structure of Inner Mongolia, using the energy statistics between 1995 and 2012, generalized grey correlation and prediction model is established. The results show that in Inner Mongolia, the correlation of production and consumption between coal and total energy is far better than that of oil, natural gas, hydroelectricity and nuclear electricity, and other energy generation; of which the coal is the predominant role in increasing the total energy production and consumption. Through forecasting the total energy consumption and coal consumption between 1995 and 2012 in Inner Mongolia by using gray prediction method GM(1, N), we gets the test results that the precision of prediction model with regard to total energy consumption and coal consumption is high. Furthermore, by using this model, this paper forecasts that total energy use in Inner Mongolia will reach 610.06 million tons of standard coal, and coal consumption will reach 349.77 million tons of standard coal by 2020. For this reason, this paper proposes that we must actively change the energy industry development model, adjust energy consumption structure, and promote clean energy consumption ratio. On the other side, we must work energetically to develop the circular economy, eliminate backward production capacity, and adjust the industrial structure positively.关键词
灰色关联预测模型/能源消费/煤炭消费/内蒙古Key words
the gray correlation prediction model/energy consumption/coal consumption/Inner Mongolia分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
童泉格,孙涵,成金华,王洪健..基于广义灰色模型的内蒙古能源消费预测[J].中国国土资源经济,2015,28(4):53-57,69,6.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(71103164) （71103164）
