中山大学学报（自然科学版）Issue(5)：140-147,152,9.
珠江流域区域干旱风险评估*
Regional Drought Risk Assessment across the Pearl River Basin
摘要
Abstract
The 3-month standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index was calculated based on the monthly precipitation and temperature data of 42 meterological stations in the Pearl River basin from 1951 to 2011.The Pearl River basin was divided into 5 subregions characterized by the variation of drought based on the rotated empirical orthogonal function method.The duration and intensity of drought were selected to be the characteristic variables according to the run theory,and the drought risk assess-ment was made across the Pearl River basin by using a multivariate regional frequency analysis approach. The five subregions divided from the Pearl River basin are all homogeneous,and the goodness-of-fit tests indicate that generalized normal and Pearson type Ⅲ distributions are best for the duration as a regional marginal distribution for different subregions,while generalized Parato distribution is best for the intensi-ty.The Clayton copula is the best-fit regional copula for subregions one,three,and five,and the Arch13 copula is best for subregions two and four.Considering the drought return years as a risk,different dis-tricts across the Pearl River basin might suffer different drought risks.From the perspective of region,the districts of Hejiang,Guijiang,Zuojiang and Youjiang River basin will suffer a higher drought risk than others and should be caught enough attention.While from the perspective of administration,Guangxi will be the most dangerous province for all kinds of drought risks.关键词
标准化降水蒸散发指数/旋转经验正交函数/干旱风险/copula函数/多变量区域频率分析/珠江流域Key words
standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index/rotated empirical orthogonal function/drought risks/multivariate regional frequency analysis/copula function/the Pearl River basin分类
大气科学引用本文复制引用
黄强,陈子遷,刘占明,孔兰..珠江流域区域干旱风险评估*[J].中山大学学报（自然科学版）,2013,(5):140-147,152,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金（41371498），广东省水利创新研究基金（2011370004209292），水利部公益性行业科研专项基金资助项目 （）
