安徽农业科学2016，Vol.44Issue(14)：229-231,3.
集合预报在贵州最低气温中的应用
Application of Multi-model Ensemble Method for Minimum Temperature in Guizhou Province
摘要
Abstract
Based on the data taken from China Meteorological Administration (CMA), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and European Cen-tre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the multi-model ensemble forecast methods for minimum temperature were carried out in Guizhou Province.The slipping coefficient was applied in the forecast model, which result was compared with single multi-model ensemble mean and the routine forecast.The result showed that the multi-model ensemble method evidently reduced the forecast RMSE in the forecast of 24 -120 h from Jan.1, 2013 to Apr.30, 2014.And there was a considerable improvement on forecast skill over the ECMWF EMN.The areas of RMSE less than 1.5 ℃ was higher than ECMWF and EMN in Guizhou, and also, the EMN was better than ECMWF in 24 -48 h, however, it had not obvi-ous improvement after 48 h.关键词
最低气温/多模式集合/集合平均/均方根误差/贵州Key words
Lowest temperature/Multi-model Ensemble/Ensemble Mean/RMSE/Guizhou分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
李刚,谢清霞,魏涛..集合预报在贵州最低气温中的应用[J].安徽农业科学,2016,44(14):229-231,3.基金项目
国家预报员专项项目（CMAYBY2016－065）；贵州省气象局2015年度业务攻关项目（GZGG201501）；国家气象关键技术集成与应用（面上）项目（CMAGJ2014M45）。 （）
