工业技术经济2016，Vol.35Issue(7)：11-18,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1004-910X.2016.07.002
生物燃料乙醇产业发展的影响因素研究--基于美国月度数据的VAR模型分析
The Influencing Factors of Biological Fuel Ethanol Industry Development---Based on the Monthly Data Analysis of the VAR Model
摘要
Abstract
Taking American biological fuel ethanol industry as an example and selecting the monthly data between January 1982 and December 2014 , this paper constructs multivariate VAR model to analyze the factors affecting the development of biological fuel ethanol in-dustry . The results show that :there is a long-term stable cointegration relationship between the fuel ethanol production and corn prices , gasoline price , GDP and greenhouse gas emissions ;gasoline prices and GDP have positive impacts on fuel ethanol production , and the lag periods are long , while corn prices and greenhouse gas emissions have negative impacts on fuel ethanol production and the impacts gradually converge to zero in the long term ;policy support has a significant positive influence on fuel ethanol production ;in the long term fuel ethanol production is greatly influenced by gasoline prices and GDP , while the impact of greenhouse gas emissions and corn prices are sm-ller .关键词
生物燃料乙醇/VAR模型/温室气体排放量/国民生产总值/能源结构/清洁能源Key words
fuel ethanol/influencing factors/VAR model/GHG/GDP/energy structure/clean energy分类
经济学引用本文复制引用
邢斐,吴晓杰,易文钧..生物燃料乙醇产业发展的影响因素研究--基于美国月度数据的VAR模型分析[J].工业技术经济,2016,35(7):11-18,8.基金项目
垐本文得到国家自然科学基金青年项目的资助（项目批号71403093）。 （）
