工业技术经济2016，Vol.35Issue(7)：139-143,5.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1004-910X.2016.07.017
新常态下中国经济增长潜力研究
Research on China's Economic Growth Potential under the New Normal
摘要
Abstract
Over the past 30 years ,China's rapid economic growth belongs to Smith type ,which is a kind of unsustainable growth pat-tern .It will be gradually replaced by Schumpeter type or Olsen type .Economic growth slower under the background of the new normal .Ac-cording to the periodic law of China's economic growth from 1978 to 2013 ,the economic downturn will continue to around 2019 .Using Cobb-Douglas Production Function and Lucas' Human Capital Growth Model ,this paper makes an empirical analysis ranging from 1978 to 2013 . The contribution rate of fixed capital stock and human capital stock are 0.68 and 0.32 respectively .We calculate the annual growth of total factor productivity which is deducted human capital and fixed capital stock .Combining with characteristics of the economic new normal in developed countries ,it also predictes China's economic growth rate is between 5.48% and 9.12% over the period of the 13th Five Year .关键词
新常态/经济增长/Lucas人力资本增长模型/预测/经济周期Key words
the new normal/economic growth/Lucas' human capital growth model/predict/the economic cycle分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
王兴芬,张荣..新常态下中国经济增长潜力研究[J].工业技术经济,2016,35(7):139-143,5.基金项目
国家社会科学基金重大招标项目“制度变迁视角下的中国二元经济转型研究”（项目编号11&ZD146）；辽宁省教育厅哲学社会科学重大基础理论项目“二元经济转型中收入分配的动态演变”（项目编号Zw2013003）。 （）
