中国农业文摘-农业工程2016，Vol.28Issue(4)：21-28,8.
自然灾害对山东省粮食产量影响的实证分析
An Empirical Analysis on the Impact of Natural Disasters on Grain Production of Shandong Province
摘要
Abstract
Based on the relevant data of natural disasters and food production in 1978 ~ 2014 in shandong province,we analyzes the relationship between them by using grey correlation method and get the following conclusions:(1)The grain output interannual variability is mainly decided by the change of yield and sowing area,and the increase of yield is one of the largest factors impact on the total grain output.(2)In the factors which affect the yield,natural factors influence the most significant,the effect is 45% ~ 45%.(3)In several kinds of natural disasters which often occured,the correlation between drought hazard rate and the the change of grain yield is maximum followed by the non-hazard rate of flood disaster,other disasters hazard rate,the non-hazard rate of drought disaster and the non-hazard rate of other disasters,the correlation between flood hazard rate and grain yield change was minimum,it is 0.6341.After that,by building the two-dimensional dynamic game model of vulnerability assessment of grain production in shandong province,we analyze the resistance ability of all kinds of natural disasters and draw following conclusions:(1)The resistance ability of food production to drought is enhanced,to floods is reduced,to other disasters is moderate.(2)The ability to resist drought and other disasters of grain production overall presents obvious periodicity while periodicity is not obvious in against floods.On the basis of the research ,we think that we must stabilize grain production in Shandong by attaching great importance to the agricultural disaster prevention,especially enhancing drought flood prevention ability construction.We can take the following measures in detail:To strengthen the construction of irrigation and water conservancy infrastructure,to improve the warning forecast system of agricultural natural disaster,to explore the preparation of agricultural natural disaster risk funds,and so on.关键词
粮食产量/自然灾害/抗灾能力/动态二维博弈模型/防灾减灾/山东省Key words
Food production/Natural disasters/Disaster prevention and mitigation/Shandong province引用本文复制引用
李福夺,傅汇艺,毕晓易,杨兴洪..自然灾害对山东省粮食产量影响的实证分析[J].中国农业文摘-农业工程,2016,28(4):21-28,8.基金项目
贵州省教育厅人文社科研究基地项目（编号12JDO22）、贵州大学人文社科重点特色学科重大项目（项目编号GDZT12007）、贵州省人文社会科学重点研究基地喀斯特地区发展战略研究中心2015-2016年学生项目（项目编号Karst2016S08）。 （）
