大气科学2016，Vol.40Issue(4)：657-668,12.DOI:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1508.14308
多物理ETKF在暴雨集合预报中的初步应用
Preliminary Application of a Multi-Physical Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter in Precipitation Ensemble Prediction
摘要
Abstract
The optimal initial perturbation method using the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) is a point of intense popular interest in ensemble prediction. However, problems remain with respect to short-term ensemble prediction, such as insufficient ensemble spread, too large a prediction error, and so on. In this study, multi-physical <br> parameterizations and boundary perturbations were introduced into the initial ETKF, and a heavy rainfall event that occurred in Hainan Province during 30 September to 6 October 2010 was simulated, as an example, using the single-physical ETKF and multi-physical ETKF in WRF3.5. The main results were as follows: All ensemble schemes outperformed the contrast forecast, with the multi-physical ETKF found to be the best. The RMSE and ensemble spread were well improved. For the multi-physical ETKF, the improvement in the location of heavy rain was obvious.The results indicate that the introduction of a variety of physical processes in the initial perturbations for the ETKF could significantly amplify the ensemble spread and improve the ensemble forecast of each quantity. The application of the physical ETKF method may have great potential in precipitation ensemble prediction.关键词
集合转换卡尔曼滤波(ETKF)/集合预报/物理不确定/暴雨预报Key words
Ensemble transform Kalman filter/Ensemble forecast/Physical perturbation/Precipitation prediction分类
大气科学引用本文复制引用
黄红艳,齐琳琳,刘健文,黄江平,李崇银..多物理ETKF在暴雨集合预报中的初步应用[J].大气科学,2016,40(4):657-668,12.基金项目
国家高技术研究发展计划项目2012AA091801，国家自然科学基金项目41205044、41205073、41275099Funded by National High-tech R&D Program of China (Grant 2012AA091801), National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants 41205044,41205073, and 41275099) （Grant 2012AA091801）
