工业技术经济2016，Vol.35Issue(8)：107-113,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1004-910X.2016.08.014
转轨背景下国债与经济增长关系的长短期动态研究--基于SVA R模型的实证分析
The Short and Long Term Dynamic Research on the Effect of China ’s Treasury Bonds under the Background of Transition Time---The Empirical Analysis Based on SVAR Model
摘要
Abstract
This article uses the Chinese macroeconomic data from 1994 to 2015 , using SVAR model to empirically research the short and long term dynamic effect between national debt and economic growth in Chinese transition time . The analysis results show that in short-term treasury bonds can improve the economy in our country , but in the long term continuous expansion of China’s government debt will hinder the stable and healthy development of the economy . As we can seen from the impulse response figure , Chinese national debt is crowding out private investment , and we can also figure out from the variance decomposition of all the economic variables that from a long-term perspective , the explanation degree of the private investment to economic and investment are larger than debt , but smaller than debt to explain the degree of inflation volatility . Finally , according to China’s current economic situation present , we make some proposals on how to scientific management of the national debt .关键词
转轨背景/国债/经济增长/长短期/SVAR模型Key words
transition background/treasury bonds/economic growth/short-term and long-term/SVAR model分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
夏诗园,田新民..转轨背景下国债与经济增长关系的长短期动态研究--基于SVA R模型的实证分析[J].工业技术经济,2016,35(8):107-113,7.基金项目
国家社会科学基金项目“债务的可持续度量指标及其促进经济增长内生机制的分析与比较研究”（项目编号14BJL030）。 （）
