经济与管理研究2016，Vol.37Issue(8)：3-13,11.DOI:10.13502/j.cnki.issn1000-7636.2016.08.001
成本推动冲击和中国经济波动
Cost-Push Shock and China's Economic Fluctuation
摘要
Abstract
Based on the fact that domestic economy has frequently fluctuated in recent years,this paper builds up a DSGE model with cost-push,preference,technology and monetary policy shock,and also inspects the reason for economic fluctuation using the methods of impulse response analysis and variance decomposition.It is found that output volatility is caused by four kinds of shocks,among which cost-push shock contributed most.Inflation volatility is mainly driven by cost-push shock and monetary policy shock,and the impact of preference shock and technology shock is small.Furthermore,a counterfactual simulation analysis also confirms this conclusion,which also reveals the stylized fact that China's rapid economic growth depends on the high cost and the mode of China's economic development is extensive in recent years.关键词
成本推动冲击经济波动/DSGE模型Key words
cost-push shock/economic fluctuation/DSGE model分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
薛立国,杜亚斌,张润驰,徐源浩..成本推动冲击和中国经济波动[J].经济与管理研究,2016,37(8):3-13,11.基金项目
国家社会科学基金重大项目“支撑未来中国经济增长的新战略区域研究”（14ZDA024）；国家自然科学基金项目“基于动态DCI和CGE分析技术的区域一体化与福利补偿研究”（71173101）；江苏省普通高校研究生科研创新计划项目“中国宏观审慎监管政策与货币政策的协调机制研究” （）
