农业现代化研究2016，Vol.37Issue(4)：649-656,8.DOI:10.13872/j.1000-0275.2016.0026
湖北省生态文明水平现状、趋势推演及空间分异研究--基于乘法集成赋权法
Ecological civilization evaluation of Hubei Province based on a multiplication weighting method
摘要
Abstract
Based on the theory of ecological civilization, this paper constructed an ecological civilization evaluation index system for Hubei Province by using a multiplication weighting and comprehensive index method which incorporates four domains of green economy, social harmony, resource-saving, and environment-friendly. Then this paper analyzed the current situation, dynamic trend, and spatial differentiation of ecological civilization level from both provincial and municipal aspects. Results show that 1) based on 2013 cross sectional data, the level of ecological civilization in Hubei Province was 0.716 8, which was just above the average. Resource-saving and environment-friendly domains were in good condition, while the green economy and social harmony domains need further improvement; 2) based on the time series data from 2004 to 2013, the level of ecological civilization in Hubei has increased by 58.34% in the past decade, from the medium level to the higher level, showing that the construction of ecological civilization had achieved its initial success. All the four subsystems had been improved with little coordination. The growth of green economy was the biggest and the social harmony was the smallest; 3) dynamic deduction analysis showed that the level of ecological civilization in Hubei Province in 2018 could reach level 1;4) when examining 12 selected cities of Hubei Province, the spatial distribution analysis showed that the level of ecological civilization in Wuhan was the highest and Jingzhou was the lowest; 5) the clustering analysis implied that the 12 selected cities were divided into 4 types, including high, above average, below average, and low;6) the spatial autocorrelation test results showed that the cities displayed a competitive relationship in ecological civilization development; and 7) the LISA distribution stated that Wuhan existed polarization effect, while Jingzhou was the transition area. To realize the integration of ecological civilization construction of Hubei Province, this research suggests that Hubei should pay attention to the coordinated development of four systems and cities need to make up the shortfall by adjusting measures to local conditions and gradually reverse the space competition with cooperation mechanism and adopt radiation absorption to weaken polarization area and to reduce the transition area.关键词
生态文明/水平现状/趋势推演/空间分异/乘法集成赋权法/湖北省Key words
ecological civilization/static analysis/dynamic trend/spatial differentiation/multiplication weighting method/Hubei Province分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
张董敏,齐振宏,罗丽娜,万文彬,左志平..湖北省生态文明水平现状、趋势推演及空间分异研究--基于乘法集成赋权法[J].农业现代化研究,2016,37(4):649-656,8.基金项目
国家社会科学基金重点项目（14AZD002）；国家自然科学基金项目(41171436)。 （41171436）
