山东农业科学2016，Vol.48Issue(7)：169-172,4.DOI:10.14083/j.issn.1001-4942.2016.07.037
基于 GARCH 族模型的山东省生猪价格波动特征研究
Research on Fluctuation Features of Hog Price in Shandong Province Based on GARCH Models
摘要
Abstract
Shandong Province is one of the biggest pig farming provinces in China.The development of pig industry not only drives the development of animal husbandry in Shandong,but also increases the income of farmers.However,the sharp fluctuation of hog price hits the enthusiasm of farmers and also exacerbates the market risk.In this study,the fluctuation characteristics of hog price in Shandong Province were tested using GARCH models.Empirical results showed that the hog price in Shandong had obvious volatility -clustering;the hog market did not exist the characteristic of high income with high risk;there was no leverage effect on hog price fluctuation,and the market policies could reduce the volatility of hog price.We suggested that the government should strengthen macro -control and improve the monitoring and early warning mechanism of hog price.关键词
GARCH 模型/生猪价格波动/杠杆效应Key words
GARCH models/Hog price fluctuation/Leverage effect分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
王玲玲,赵瑞莹..基于 GARCH 族模型的山东省生猪价格波动特征研究[J].山东农业科学,2016,48(7):169-172,4.基金项目
山东省现代农业产业技术体系生猪创新团队建设项目（SDAIT －06－022－10）；山东农业大学现代发展研究院课题 （）
