中国水稻科学2016，Vol.30Issue(4)：417-430,14.DOI:10.16819/j.1001-7216.2016.5189
基于适应性调整的豫南地区水稻生产对未来气候变化的响应
Response of Rice to Future Climate Change Based on Adaptive Adj ustment in Southern Henan Province
摘要
Abstract
In this paper,we have chosen nine sample sites in Xinyang City,He′nan Province and conducted evaluation studies on the influence of climate changes based on single cropping rice with three representative varieties,including early middle and late mature.According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)Special Report on Emission Scenarios(SRES)A2 and B2 scenarios,combining with Regional Climate Model(RCM),we have calculated and collected the daily meteorological data during BASE period (1961-1990)and further period (2021-2025)at the nine sample sites.Considering the direct gain effects of CO2 in the future,we have simulated and analyzed the possible impacts of the future climate changes on the rice yields by using ORYZA-V3 model.On this basis,the adaptable adjustment schemes of rice yields in the different scenarios in the future are simulated.Rice yields,its stability and changes of total production in the southern Henan region are finally obtained after adaptable adjustments.As the result shows,if the adaptable adjustment or the consideration of the direct gain effects of CO2 in the future climate change is not taken,the simulated rice yields will decrease by 14.1% in A2 scenario and 8.6% in B2 scenario in this region.With the varieties and sowing time adjusted and fertilizer efficiency of CO2 under consideration,the yields will increase by 17. 2% in A2 scenario and 1 5 .7% in B2 scenario.Besides, the total production under the two scenarios increases respectively by 14.8% and 13.2% more than the stage of BASE in this region.So it will be more scientific and optimistic in the assessment research of the future climate change scenarios if we take into account the adaptable adj ustment.关键词
适应性调整/气候变化/区域气候模式/水稻Key words
adaptable adj ustment/climate change/regional climate mode/rice分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
马锐,江敏,薛昌颖,孙彬,周桐宇..基于适应性调整的豫南地区水稻生产对未来气候变化的响应[J].中国水稻科学,2016,30(4):417-430,14.基金项目
中国气象局农业气象保障与应用技术重点开放实验室开放研究基金资助项目(AMF201302) （AMF201302）
福建省自然科学基金资助项目(2014J01091) （2014J01091）
