中国卫生资源2016，Vol.19Issue(4)：289-293,5.DOI:10.13688/j.cnki.chr.2016.15333
上海市卫生总费用系统动力学模型构建
System dynamics model on the total expenditure on health in Shanghai
摘要
Abstract
Objective:The research intended to apply the method of system dynamics(SD)to build a model of total expenditure on health(TEH)in Shanghai and to simulate internal structures and functions as well as dynamic behaviors. Methods:The dynamics model was constructed by the Stella 8.1 computer simulation platform,based on the SD method. Results:Historical data from 2011 to 2013 were analyzed and relative errors between simulated and observed values on TEH,TEH per capita and ratio of TEH to GDP were 1.81%,2.24%and 0.24%,respectively. Simulating results confirmed the SD model was feasible and effective. Conclusion:Based on the SD model,various influence factors on TEH in Shanghai can be considered. Key factors and development trend can be identified by the simulation platform.关键词
卫生总费用/系统动力学/计算机仿真Key words
total expenditure on health/system dynamics/computer simulation分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
蔡雨阳,顾佳静,施莉莉,王常颖,李芬,金春林,莫雪莲,梁志伟..上海市卫生总费用系统动力学模型构建[J].中国卫生资源,2016,19(4):289-293,5.基金项目
国家高技术研究发展计划（863计划）课题“区域医疗卫生信息互通共享关键技术与新医疗模式示范工程的研究”（2013AA020418）；上海市第四轮公共卫生三年行动计划重点学科 （）
