灾害学2016，Vol.31Issue(3)：39-45,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2016.03.007
汶川地震扰动区小流域地质灾害风险概率问题
Study on Geological Hazards of Small Watershed Risk Probability in Wenchuan Eathquake Disturbance Area
摘要
Abstract
The characteristics of geological hazards in Wenchuan earthquake disturbance area are numerous landslides and rock falls,rich debris flow materials,and high occurrence frequency of hazards.We selected Du-jiangyan City as the study area.Based on small watershed risk zonation,logistic regression model was adopted to make a statistics analysis on critical rainfall and time probability aiming at landslides and debris flows of small wa-tershed after earthquake and them in different grade risk zones.The study results showed that intraday rainfall was the time condition to trigger landslide and debris flow with probability of 0.7 to 0.9.Heavy rainfall was spatial con-tidion to trigger landslide and debris flow in higher and high risk areas with occurrence probability of 0.9.Critical rainfall to make risk loss was heavy rainfall.关键词
汶川地震/扰动区/小流域/地质灾害/临界雨量/风险概率Key words
Wenchuan earthquake/small watershed/hazard/critical rainfall/probability分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
薛志航,邓创,樊晓一,乔建平,王萌,吴彩燕..汶川地震扰动区小流域地质灾害风险概率问题[J].灾害学,2016,31(3):39-45,7.基金项目
国家电网公司科技项目（521999150031）；国家自然科学基金项目（41272297）；科技部重点国际合作项目（2013DFA21720）；国家青年科学基金（41301592）；中国科学院山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室自主支持基金项目资助（2013年度）；长江科学院开放研究基金资助项目 （）
