电力系统自动化2016，Vol.40Issue(15)：53-58,6.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20151021001
分布式冷热电联供系统负荷随机模糊建模
Random Fuzzy Model for Load of Distributed Combined Cooling, Heating and Power System
摘要
Abstract
In view of the coexistence of randomness and fuzziness for the natural gas based distributed combined cooling , heating and power (CCHP) system load , effective extraction of its uncertain characteristics is of great significance for system optimum scheduling and operation . A random and fuzzy modeling method is proposed . First , based on historical CCHP cold/heat/electricity load data , it has been found that the probability distribution characteristics can be described by weighted sum of n‐stage normal distribution , and the probability density functions of electricity load and cold/heat load are obtained . Further , the function parameters are analyzed and found without complete statistical property but epistemically obscure . By extracting the characteristics of the membership function and the credibility density function of parameters , the electricity load and cold/heat load are defined as random‐fuzzy variables . Based on following the thermal load ( FTL ) , the coupling characteristics between electric load and cool/heat load are analyzed , so the random‐fuzzy model for daily exchange power of CCHP with power system is proposed and the corresponding random‐fuzzy simulation method given . Case study is carried out based on operation and load data from a CCHP connected to a 10 kV bus in a city in Hunan Province , The effectiveness and validity of the proposed model is proved by simulation results .关键词
冷热电联供/分布式电源/随机模糊变量/以热定电Key words
combined cooling , heating and power(CCHP)/distributed generator/random fuzzy variable/following thermal load引用本文复制引用
马瑞,李文晔,李晅,吴瑕,秦泽宇..分布式冷热电联供系统负荷随机模糊建模[J].电力系统自动化,2016,40(15):53-58,6.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目（51277015）。This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China （）
