电力系统自动化2016，Vol.40Issue(16)：31-37,158,8.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20150809003
考虑维度重要性的电力系统可靠性评估拟蒙特卡洛方法
Dimensional Importance Based Quasi-Monte Carlo Method for Power System Reliability Evaluation
摘要
Abstract
In view of the degradation of improvement character of the quasi‐Monte Carlo method in handling high dimension problems , a dimensional importance based quasi‐Monte Carlo method for power system reliability evaluation is proposed . First , the error estimation principle of quasi‐Monte Carlo is described , and the uniformity degradation of low discrepancy sequence on increasing dimensions is analyzed . Secondly , the decomposition term of error bounds is derived by analysis of variance and sampling in the descending order of dimensional importance is proposed to reduce the error bounds . Then a model for quantifying dimensional importance is developed . Finally , a quasi‐Monte Carlo model for power system reliability evaluation based on dimensional importance and a cross entropy quasi‐Monte Carlo model are developed . Then the accuracy index of evaluating the error between computed value and the true value is presented . The accuracy indices in calculating loss of load probability ( LOLP) and expected demand not supplied ( EDNS) of the proposed method and those of the crude method are compared on the test systems of RTS79 generation system , 292‐unit generation system and RBTS generation and transmission system . Results show that the method proposed has better error accuracy in the calculation of both indices mentioned above .关键词
拟蒙特卡洛/可靠性评估/维度重要性/低偏差序列/失负荷概率/电力不足期望值Key words
quasi-Monte Carlo/reliability evaluation/dimensional importance/low discrepancy sequence/loss of load probability ( LOLP)/expected demand not supplied ( EDNS)引用本文复制引用
侯雨伸,王秀丽,张玥,郭静丽..考虑维度重要性的电力系统可靠性评估拟蒙特卡洛方法[J].电力系统自动化,2016,40(16):31-37,158,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目（51277140）。 （）
