水科学进展2016，Vol.27Issue(4)：501-511,11.DOI:10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2016.04.003
新疆塔里木河流域洪水过程集聚性及低频气候影响
Temporal clustering of the Tarim River floods and its relationship to climate teleconnection patterns
摘要
Abstract
Temporal clustering of magnitudes and times of occurrence of floods in the Tarim River basin recorded at 8 hydrological stations located in 5 states was analyzed using the Cox regression model and monthly frequencies of flood occurrences and dispersion methods under the impact of low⁃frequency climate change. Results indicated that: under the effect of climate change, there was a significant temporal clustering in the flood process in Tarim River basin. Peri⁃ods of high flood frequencies trended to be the periods of high flood mitigation seriously influenced by regional flood control which was the main reason for large flood⁃induced losses in the Tarim River basin. The positive phase of cli⁃mate indices resulted in the early occurrences of floods for the same exceedance probabilities and decreasing ex⁃ceedance probabilities for the same time of flood occurrence at the hydrological stations and in the region, which both had positive coefficient values fitted by the Cox regression model with climate indices as covariates, while the negative phase of climate indices had an opposite effect. The exceedance probability of flood occurrence time preferably respon⁃ded to low⁃frequency change, which was advantageous for flood control and flood risk management in the Tarim River basin. The majority of hydrological stations did not reveal any inner⁃annual clustering of flood occurrences when ob⁃tained by POT sampling, while regional flood occurrences had significant clustering.关键词
Cox回归模型/POT抽样/洪水过程/集聚性/塔里木河流域Key words
Cox regression model/POT resampling/flood process/clustering/Tarim River分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
顾西辉,张强,刘剑宇,孙鹏..新疆塔里木河流域洪水过程集聚性及低频气候影响[J].水科学进展,2016,27(4):501-511,11.基金项目
国家杰出青年科学基金资助项目（51425903）；香港特别行政区研究资助局项目（ CUHK441313） The study is financially supported by the National Science Found for Distinguished Young Scholars of China （ No．51425903）． （）
