电测与仪表2016，Vol.53Issue(15)：7-12,6.
基于 MCMC 方法的二次系统风险评估研究
Research on secondary system risk assessment based on MCMC methods
摘要
Abstract
According to the statistics, there are more than 70%of the accidents are linked to the secondary system di-rectly or indirectly among large area blackouts in power system.So the high reliability of the secondary system is vital to the establishment of a strong and health grid.Considering the risk of secondary system affects the reliability of the power system, this paper makes a research with application of the MCMC method and puts forward 4 reliability indices of the grid as the measurement standard of the secondary system risk.The MCMC method inherits the advantages of traditional MC method, which has a fast convergence speed, accurate calculation and stable index, as well as realizes dynamic simulation.Through the simulation of IEEE-RTS 24 nodes, this paper illustrates the validity and stability of the MCMC method.Finally, taking a Guizhou local grid as an example, this paper calculates 4 reliability indices un-der 4 typical operation modes.The results show that the secondary system risk is larger in winter operation mode, which has great reference value for establishing a more reliable and security power system.关键词
二次系统/风险评估/可靠性/MCMC方法/Gibbs抽样/运行方式Key words
secondary system/risk assessment/reliability/MCMC method/Gibbs sampler/operation mode分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
李世新,周步祥,周海忠,王精卫..基于 MCMC 方法的二次系统风险评估研究[J].电测与仪表,2016,53(15):7-12,6.
