广东电力2016，Vol.29Issue(8)：60-66,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1007-290X.2016.08.012
基于多状态信息修正优化组合的电力设备故障率计算方法
Calculation Method for Fault Rate of Electric Power Equipment Based on Multi-state Information Amendment Optimization Combination
摘要
Abstract
Forecasting method for multi-state information amendment optimization combination is used to establish three kinds of models of state amendment optimization combination for forecasting fault rates of electric power equipments,which are respectively affected by weather,insulation aging of materials and equipment overhaul. In allusion to characteristics of various stochastic influencing factors,extensible principle is applied in forecasting fault rates of three kinds of weather state models. Joint failure probability density method based on three parameters Weibull distribution-Copula function is used for calculating fault rate caused by insulation aging and Holt-Winters model is used to estimate fault rate due to equipment over-haul. Predicted value with high degree of accuracy is worked out by using fruit flies optimization algorithm to weight and op-timize the fault rate of each submodel. Taking one power system in some region for an example,the analysis results indicate that these models can effectively improve forecasting precision of fault rates,meanwhile the fruit flies optimization algo-rithm is efficient to solve the forecasting problem of multi-state information amendment optimization combination.关键词
电力设备/故障率/多状态信息/修正优化组合/果蝇优化算法Key words
electric power equipment/fault rate/multi-state information/amendment optimization combination/fruit flies optimization algorithm分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
吴杰康,胥志强,徐庆焯,鲍雨徽..基于多状态信息修正优化组合的电力设备故障率计算方法[J].广东电力,2016,29(8):60-66,7.基金项目
国家自然科学资助基金(50767001) （50767001）
国家863高技术资助基金(2007AA04Z197) （2007AA04Z197）
广东自然科学资助基金(S2013010012431,2014A030313509) （S2013010012431,2014A030313509）
中国南方电网有限责任公司科技项目(K-GD2014-194) （K-GD2014-194）
