林业经济问题2016，Vol.36Issue(4)：355-360,6.DOI:10.16832/j.cnki.1005-9709.2016.04.012
美元汇率对中国天然橡胶现货价格影响的实证∗
Empirical Study on Impact of the Fluctuation of US Dollar Exchange Rate to the Spot Price of Natural Rubber in China
摘要
Abstract
The theory of supply and demand can’t explain why the price of natural rubber fluctuate so much from 2009 to 2015. In order to untie the paradox, this paper builds VAR model based on unit-root and cointegration test to analyze the relations between US Dollar Index and the price of SCR-WF by using time-series weekly data from January 2009 to May 2015, utilizing pulse response analysis and Granger causality test. The result shows that there is not only a negative correlation between US Dollar Index and the price of SCR-WF, but also this negative correlation is Granger causality relationship. That is to say, the price change of US Dollar Index can influence the price change of SCR-WF, but the price change of SCR-WF can’t influence the price change of US Dollar Index. At last some sugges-tions are put forward to reduce the influence of US Dollar exchange rate on the domestic market. For example, government should encourage enterprises to strengthen hedging trade, make the best use of tariffs and purchasing and storage policy, and so on.关键词
美元汇率/美元指数/全乳胶价格/VAR模型Key words
US Dollar exchange rate/US Dollar Index/the Price of SCR-WF/VAR model分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
樊孝凤,刘行..美元汇率对中国天然橡胶现货价格影响的实证∗[J].林业经济问题,2016,36(4):355-360,6.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(71163011)、海南省社会科学基金资助项目(HNSK (ZC)15-6)、国家天然橡胶产业技术体系产业经济研究项目( CARS-34-GW11)、中西部高校综合能力提升计划(海南)项目( HDZHSL201301) （71163011）
