地震工程学报2016，Vol.38Issue(4)：533-540,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-0844.2016.04.0533
黄土高原地震作用下黄土滑坡滑距预测方法
Forecasting Method for Sliding Distance of Seismic Landslides on the Loess Plateau,China
摘要
Abstract
There have been many loess seismic landslides on the Loess Plateau of Northwest, China,which have seriously affected the normal agriculture,life,and local economy of the local residents due to their high frequency and the destruction that they cause.Disaster area analysis of loess seismic landslides and the sliding distance could ascertain the endanger scope and put forward suggestions for their prevention.To evaluate the influencing area of seismic landslides,a forecasting method was presented for the sliding distance of the seismic landslides on the Loess Plateau,by means of a fuzzy information model based on the data of 9 3 cases.Progress in the research is shown as follows:first,combining former research and components,the loess seismic landslides developed in the loess area are divided into four types:homogeneous loess landslides, loess-bedrock interface landslides,loess-gravel-bedrock landslides,and loess-bedrock landslides. Homogeneous loess landslides,which account for over 60% of the total seismic landslides,are a main focus of this paper.Second,the Morgenstern-Price method is used for calculating the stability of loess slopes.The relationship between different factors and the safe factor is discussed in the paper and the factors such as seismic intensity,relative altitude,slope angle,unit weight,internal cohesion,and internal friction angle can influence the safe factor.Third,the impact analysis of different factors on the sliding distance of loess seismic landslides is given.It can be seen that the earthquake magnitude determines the scale of landslide disaster area,and the seismic intensity affects the distribution of the landslides.Fourth,a fuzzy information model is used for the calculation of the sliding distance.By comparing with other methods,results show that the accuracy of this method is better for forecasting the disaster area.A fuzzy information matrix was established on the basis of 9 3 loess seismic landslides caused by South Tianshui 8.0 earthquake in 1654,Tongwei 7.5 earthquake in 1718,Haiyuan 8.5 earthquake in 1920,and Gulang 8.0 earthquake in 1927.关键词
滑动距离/地震滑坡/预测/黄土高原/模糊信息模型Key words
sliding distance/seismic landslide/prediction/the Loess Plateau/fuzzy information model分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
王鼐,王兰民,王谦,王峻,王平..黄土高原地震作用下黄土滑坡滑距预测方法[J].地震工程学报,2016,38(4):533-540,8.基金项目
国家自然基金(51478444,51408567) （51478444,51408567）
中国地震局兰州地震研究所基本科研业务经费项目(2016IESLZ01) （2016IESLZ01）
