地震工程学报2016，Vol.38Issue(4)：598-605,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-0844.2016.04.0598
中国西北地区东部地震序列参数与预测余震发生的关系分析
Relation between Earthquake Sequence Parameters and the Prediction of Aftershocks in the Eastern Part of Northwest China
摘要
Abstract
In this study,we calculated the parameters E2/E0 ,(M0 -M3 )lgN3 ,h value,K value,and b value of 5 1 earthquake sequences of M≥5 .0 in the eastern part of Northwest China from 1970 to 2012.The results show that priority should be given to the E2/E0 and K value cal-culations in making the initial j udgment of the earthquake type after the main earthquake.There is a good prediction result regarding the mainshock aftershock earthquake type and isolated earth-quake sequence using E2/E0 .Moreover,E2/E0 is unrestricted with respect to the aftershock number in the early stage.Historically,when the judgment result was based on E2/E0 to deter-mine the mainshock-aftershock earthquake type and isolated earthquake sequence,it has general-ly been correct.The restrictions on the K value calculation are also relatively light.Through earthquake sample calculation,we found that the number of aftershocks within 2~3 days after most moderate-strong earthquakes could satisfy the K value calculation,and the discriminating power of the K value is relatively high.The parameter (M0-M3 )lgN 3 has a high discriminatory power when j udging the mainshock-aftershock earthquake type,but there are associated strict re-quirements and could be used as reference in practical work.The h value has a high discriminato-ry power when j udging the multiple mainshock type and can provide a reference for earthquake trend j udgment after the mainshock,but calculations by the h value require a sufficient sample number and the consistency and stability of the calculation results are weak.As such,it is sug-gested for use only as a reference in practical work.关键词
西北地区东部/地震序列/参数Key words
the eastern part of Northwest China/earthquake sequence/parameter分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
许晓庆,盛菊琴,马禾青..中国西北地区东部地震序列参数与预测余震发生的关系分析[J].地震工程学报,2016,38(4):598-605,8.基金项目
宁夏回族自治区科技攻关计划项目(102164170) （102164170）
宁夏自然科学基金资助项目(NZ14228) （NZ14228）
