交通信息与安全2016，Vol.34Issue(3)：10-17,8.DOI:10.3963/j.issn1674-4861.2016.03.002
道路因素对典型较严重道路交通事故严重性的影响分析
An Analysis on the Impact of Highway Factors on Severity of Typical Traffic Crashes
王长君 1王励旸 2李瑞敏3
作者信息
- 1. 公安部交通管理科学研究所 江苏 无锡 214151
- 2. 公安部交通管理科学研究所国家道路交通管理工程技术研究中心 江苏 无锡 214151
- 3. 清华大学交通研究所 北京 100084
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
With the purpose to improve the road traffic safety,it is important to investigate the factors which have impacts on the severity of traffic crashes.Based on the data of traffic crashes in recently years which include serious colli-sions,the types of crashes are distinguished using Poisson Model and Negative-binomial Model.These models are also used for establishing an estimation model of fatality rate for three typical crash types:rear-end crashes,lateral impact crashes and pedestrian-involved crashes.In this model,the fatality is a dependent variable and highway factors are inde-pendent variables,the numbers of persons involved in each crash is a modified variable.The parameters of this model are determined by the over-dispersion parameter and Akaike Information Criterion (AIC)method.The results indicate that the grade of highway and roadside protective facilities significantly correlate with the fatality of rear-end crashes.Weather, conditions of road surface,locations of segments or intersections,gradient of roads,and structure of pavement are all rel-evant with lateral impact crashes.The factors of conditions of road surface,grade of roads,numbers of lanes,and radius of curve are relevant with pedestrian-involved crashes.This innovated method on severity of traffic crashes proposed in this study can be further used for analyses on extremely serious traffic crashes.This study could be used as a reference for accident analysis and design of roads as well.关键词
交通安全/事故死亡率/道路因素/泊松模型/负二项模型/事故数据分析Key words
traffic safety/fatality rate/road factors/Poisson model/Negative-binomial model/crash data analysis分类
交通工程引用本文复制引用
王长君,王励旸,李瑞敏..道路因素对典型较严重道路交通事故严重性的影响分析[J].交通信息与安全,2016,34(3):10-17,8.
