交通信息与安全2016，Vol.34Issue(3)：27-33,40,8.DOI:10.3963/j.issn1674-4861.2016.03.004
基于贝叶斯空间相关模型的城市快速路安全影响因素研究
An Analysis on Effective Factors of Safety for Urban Expressways Based on Bayesian Spatial Models
摘要
Abstract
Expressways are the backbones of the urban traffic network.The safety situation on expressways can di-rectly affect the efficiency of traffic.50 069 accidents occurred in the year 2011-2013 is collected by central video monitor system in a three-year period.Based on traffic flow data from dual-loop detectors and accidents data,a Bayesian spatial model is developed to analyze four expressways in the City of Shanghai:North-South elevated road,Yan′an elevated road,Inner Ring,and Middle Ring.In order to reveal the potential spatial correlation among road segments,an adjacent-correlation spatial model is developed by adding a spatial random-effect factor to the negative binomial model.Further,a spatial correlation model of distance is developed by improving the proximity matrix of the factor.The Bayesian method is applied to estimate the parameters and compare the regression results of these three models.The results show that the spatial correlation model of distance is superior in terms of goodness-of-fit.The deviance information criterion (DIC)of the spatial correlation model of distance is 6.04% lower than which in the negative binomial model.It indicates that the distribution of accidents on expressway segments is spatial correlated and is related to the distance between segments.An analysis on road geometric features shows that the risk of accident tends to be higher with a larger number of ramps with-in 1 km before or after the midpoint of segments;the cumulative turning angle per kilometer is larger as well.Weaving segments between on-ramps and off-ramps have a higher risk of accident.The volume of average daily traffic shows a sig-nificant positive correlation with accidents.Compared with the other two expressways,the risk of accident on Inner Ring is higher;while Middle Ring is relatively lower.关键词
交通安全/城市快速路/交通事故/安全影响因素/贝叶斯方法/空间相关模型Key words
traffic safety/urban expressway/traffic accident/effect factor of safety/Bayesian method/spatial cor-relation model分类
交通工程引用本文复制引用
殷炬元,李铁男,孙剑..基于贝叶斯空间相关模型的城市快速路安全影响因素研究[J].交通信息与安全,2016,34(3):27-33,40,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目（51278362）资助 （）
