气象与环境学报2016，Vol.32Issue(4)：32-38,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2016.04.004
大连地区短时强降水天气特征及预报指标研究
Synoptic characteristics and prediction index of short-time strong precipitation in Dalian
摘要
Abstract
Using hourly precipitation and conventional meteorological observation data from seven major stations and 249 automatic weather stations from 2004 to 2013,the spatial-temporal distribution and climate characteristics, evolution trend and circulation background of short-time strong precipitation in Dalian were analyzed.The weather prediction indexes of strong precipitation were established as well.The results indicate that regional short-time strong precipitation events occur normally 2.2-2.3 times per year.This number tends to increase slightly in the southern and eastern parts,remains stable in the central and northwestern parts,while decreases slightly in the north-central parts.It usually occurs during April to October,especially during July to August,generally happening from 02:00 to 10:00.The number of times that short-time strong precipitation occurs shows a clear spatial distribu-tion feature,i.e.,increasing from the eastern to the western and central parts.The highest number occurs in the east-northern part,following by the southern part,and the lowest is in Wafangdian of the west-northern part.In Ju-ly,the highest number of short-time strong precipitation appears in the northern part,and in August,it is in the eastern part.In other months,it shows strong spatial dispersion characteristics.The thresholds,including mean spe-cific humidity between 925 hPa and 850 hPa,depression of dew-point temperature at 700 hPa,average difference in temperature between 500 hPa and 850 hPa,mean K index,mean height of 0 ℃ layer,and average thickness of warm clouds,can be used to forecast the short-time strong precipitation in real operation.This paper provides a ref-erence for forecasting the strong precipitation in Dalian.关键词
短时强降水/天气特征/预报指标Key words
Short-time strong precipitation/Synoptic characteristics/Prediction indexes分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
王囝囝,黄振,邹善勇,刘晓初..大连地区短时强降水天气特征及预报指标研究[J].气象与环境学报,2016,32(4):32-38,7.基金项目
环渤海区域科技协同创新基金项目“黄渤海雷暴大风监测及预警指标研究”（QYXM201502）资助。 （）
