气象与环境学报2016，Vol.32Issue(4)：139-143,5.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2016.04.019
误差订正在辽宁地区冬季温度预报中的应用
Application of bias correction to temperature forecast in winter in Liaoning province
摘要
Abstract
The interpolation results of 2 m temperature forecast products produced by the meso-scale operational model in winter of 2014 in Liaoning province were corrected using methods of 7-day bias correction (7DBC)and running mean bias correction (RMBC).The correction results were compared to products of MOS (model output statistics)forecast.The forecast accuracy of the three methods,MOS forecast,7DBC and RMBC,were analyzed. The results show that forecast accuracy of the two bias correction methods is higher than that of NWP (numerical weather prediction)interpolation method.The RMBC method is better than the 7DBC method.As to 24 h maxi-mum temperature forecast,the forecast accuracy of the RMBC method is the highest.For minimum temperature forecast,the forecast accuracy of RMBC is higher than that of NMC (National Meteorological Center)MOS fore-cast at 08:00,while less than MOS forecast at 20:00.The method of RMBC needs accumulated data of 1 to 15 days.Compared to MOS method,the method of RMBC needs less data and is easy to operate,which is more suit-able for areas without long-term records to conduct numerical model revisions for temperature.关键词
数值预报产品/7d固定误差订正/滑动误差订正/MOS预报Key words
NWP (numerical weather prediction)products/7-day bias correction/Running-mean bias correction/MOS (model output statistics)forecast分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
贾旭轩,田莉,陆井龙,杨扬..误差订正在辽宁地区冬季温度预报中的应用[J].气象与环境学报,2016,32(4):139-143,5.基金项目
中国气象局山洪建设项目“气象灾害管理系统”（2014）、辽宁省气象局科研项目“省级乡镇精细化气象要素指导预报研究”（201302）和辽宁省气象局乡镇预报创新团队共同资助。 （）
