可再生能源2016，Vol.34Issue(8)：1221-1226,6.
“绿电”替代“火电”的潜力评估与进程分析
Potentiality evaluation and process analysis of "green power" as a substitute to "thermal power"
摘要
Abstract
This article intends to predict and evaluate the power generation of "thermal power" and "green power" in each time point in basing on the theory of innovation diffusion,then substitution scale and the substitution process are subsequently analyzed.Results shows that "thermal power" is still the main driving force of China's power structure from 2020 to 2050,while the power generation of "green power" is on the rise,the proportion shows substantially "M" type;Then,"green power" is mainly depend on hydropower and nuclear power,and both of them have the greater development potential and will be vigorously developed over the next five years;At present,the wind power is currently in the stage of industrialization,wind market has become mature and wind capacity also has generally remained stable.关键词
绿电/创新扩散/替代规模/替代进程Key words
"green power"/diffusion of innovation/alternative potential/alternative process分类
能源科技引用本文复制引用
张磊,张习习,杨晴..“绿电”替代“火电”的潜力评估与进程分析[J].可再生能源,2016,34(8):1221-1226,6.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(71373261). （71373261）
