电网技术2016，Vol.40Issue(9)：2824-2830,7.DOI:10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2016.09.034
复杂城市化因素下的饱和负荷预测模型
Saturated Load Forecasting Model Under Complex Urbanization Characteristics
摘要
Abstract
With advance and intensification of urbanization, power load in some big cities begins to present a feature of saturation. In this paper, a saturated load forecasting model under complicated urbanization characteristics is proposed. In this model, main urbanization factors influencing power load, i.e. population, economy and area, are analyzed. With regard to complicated data environment caused by diversified urbanization characteristics, principle component analysis and wavelet transform are used to get urbanization characteristics with low dimension and high independence principle components and their corresponding fundamental frequency components. Finally, saturation capacity and its corresponding time are given by constructing correlation models between principle components of urbanization characteristics and power load. Case study of Shanghai shows saturation point and growing point of power load in future and reveals mechanism of urbanization characteristics influencing saturated power load.关键词
饱和负荷预测/城市化/主成分分析/小波变换/关联模型Key words
saturated load forecasting/urbanization/principle component analysis/wavelet transform/correlation model分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
李亦言,韩冬,严正,凌晓波..复杂城市化因素下的饱和负荷预测模型[J].电网技术,2016,40(9):2824-2830,7.基金项目
国家电网公司科技项目(SGHB0000KXJS1400044)。Project Supported by Science and Technology Project of SGCC (SGHB0000KXJS1400044) （SGHB0000KXJS1400044）
