电测与仪表2016，Vol.53Issue(16)：35-38,4.
一种风电功率简易预测模型
A simple model for wind power forecasting
摘要
Abstract
Wind power forecasting becomes a research hotspot gradually.In order to improve accuracy of forecasting, the model becomes increasingly complex.This paper presentsa simple model for ultra-short-term wind forecasting by researching the characteristicsof wind power.Firstly,the time series of wind power is decomposed into trend component and fluctuant components by using rolling average method.Considering different characteristics of each component, ARMA model and ELM model is built individually.Simulation results show that this model is preferably fitting for the time series of wind power and has the good application prospect.关键词
风电预测/滑动平均/自回归滑动平均/极限学习机Key words
wind power forecasting/rolling average/ARMA/ELM分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
李乐,刘天琪,王福军,关铁英..一种风电功率简易预测模型[J].电测与仪表,2016,53(16):35-38,4.基金项目
国网甘肃省电力公司科技项目 （）
