海洋开发与管理2016，Vol.33Issue(8)：80-83,4.
北极航道开通对我国能源供求形势的影响
Impact of the Opening of Arctic Waterway on China’ s Energy Supply and Demand Situation
摘要
Abstract
This paper summarized the status quo of China’ s energy supply and demand,and on this basis,according to the data of China Statistical Yearbook,the ARIMA model was constructed by using the total energy demand time series from 2013 to 1990,and the fitting and testing were car-ried out.Using this model to forecast the energy demand from 2016 to 2018,the situation of ener-gy supply and demand in China was revealed.The results showed that the energy demand in the future would continue to grow.In the case of insufficient energy supply,China’ s energy supply needs to rely on a large number of imports,and the stable supply of imported energy in China is under threat.In this context,the opening of the Arctic waterway is an opportunity for China’ s en-ergy supply,which will ease the impact of China’ s energy supply and demand situation.Further-more,relevant policy proposals were put forward.关键词
北极航道/能源供求/ARIMA模型Key words
Arctic channel/Energy supply and demand/ARIMA model分类
海洋科学引用本文复制引用
刘萍,胡麦秀..北极航道开通对我国能源供求形势的影响[J].海洋开发与管理,2016,33(8):80-83,4.基金项目
上海市浦江人才计划（C类）项目“北极航道开通与中国的潜在战略利益研究”（14PJC061）． （）
