交通信息与安全2016，Vol.34Issue(4)：50-56,7.DOI:10.3963/j.issn1674-4861.2016.04.008
基于物元分析理论的空管安全风险模糊综合评价
An Fuzzy Synthetic Evaluation Model for Safety Risk in Air Traffic Control Based on Matter Element Analysis
摘要
Abstract
In order to ensure aviation safety and scientifically evaluate the risks in air traffic control (ATC),a fuzzy synthetic evaluation model for risk assessment in ATC is established based on the matter element theory.The hazards in ATC are identified and classified according to Safety Management Manual issued by the International Civil Aviation Or-ganization (ICAO).An indicator system and a set of classes of effective factors and the corresponding degrees of hazards in ATC are determined.The weight of each hazard is calculated by the matter element theory,eliminating the limitation of subjectivity in experts′evaluation.Furthermore,the weight assignment is improved.After that,a multilevel fuzzy syn-thetic evaluation method is proposed to evaluate the risks in ATC.On the basis of statistics and analysis to the hazard data in ATC of a coastal sub-bureau of air traffic management (ATM)in 2012 – 2014,the risks are evaluated.The results in-dicate that the degree of impact of first-level,second-level,and third-level membership of hazards are 0.291 3,0.495 1, 0.213 6,respectively.The degree of impact in this sub-bureau lies at second-level.The results are consistent with the ac-tual operations.Thus the practicability and effectiveness of the proposed method is verified.关键词
航空安全/空管危险源/空管安全风险评价/物元分析法/层次分析法Key words
aviation safety/safety risks in air traffic control (ATC)/risk assessment in air traffic control/matter element theory/analytical hierarchy process分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
张晓燕,韩松臣,杨昌其..基于物元分析理论的空管安全风险模糊综合评价[J].交通信息与安全,2016,34(4):50-56,7.基金项目
民航局科技项目(MHRD20140213)、民航局科技项目(20150203)、中国民航飞行学院科研基金项目(J2012－48)、中国民航飞行学院青年基金项目(Q2014－071)资助 （MHRD20140213）
