江西农业学报2016，Vol.28Issue(9)：95-101,7.DOI:10.19386/j.cnki.jxnyxb.2016.09.21
基于气象要素南昌PM2.5污染特性及预测方法
Pollution Characteristics and Fo recasting Method of PM2.5 in Nanchang Based on Meteorologi cal Factors
摘要
Abstract
According to the pollutant data observed at six monitoring points in Nanchang and the automatic meteorological ob-servation data of Nanchang in the same period , we used the methods of statistical analysis and meteorological statistical forecast to study the seasonal change law of PM2.5 mass concentration in Nanchang, carried out a comprehensive analysis of the main meteor-ological factors affecting the air pollution, and then established the statistical forecasting models of PM2.5 mass concentration in summer and non-summer.The results indicated that the average PM 2.5 mass concentration in summer in Nanchang was lower than that in non-summer, and the air quality in over half of non-summer exceeded the national standard gradeⅡ.The peak of month-ly mean PM2.5 mass concentration appeared in December and January, and the air quality of Nanchang in 3/4 of January exceeded the national standard gradeⅡ.The hourly variation in PM2.5 mass concentration was of bimodal distribution, and the two peak val-ues appeared basically at 9:00~11:00 or 22:00~24:00 in summer and at 11:00~12:00 or 21:00~23:00 in non-summer, which was related to the law of human activity and sunlight time .The established non-summer forecast model of PM 2.5 had a high-er accuracy than the summer forecast model , and it has a certain practical application value for environmental meteorological fore-cast.关键词
PM2.5/南昌/污染特性/预报模式Key words
PM2.5/Nanchang/Pollution characteristics/Forecast model分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
章开美,陈胜东,徐卫民,柳艳香,杨华..基于气象要素南昌PM2.5污染特性及预测方法[J].江西农业学报,2016,28(9):95-101,7.基金项目
公益性行业（气象）可研专项（ GYHY201406029、GYHY201306043）；江西省气象服务中心2015年课题“南昌空气污染物（PM2．5）浓度变化特征及预报模型研究”。 （）
