农业展望Issue(8)：8-14,23,8.
2015/16榨季国内外食糖市场与2016/17榨季展望
Sugar Markets at Home and Abroad in 2015/16 Crushing Season and Their Prospects in 2016/17 Crushing Season
摘要
Abstract
In 2015/16 crushing season, the production and sales of China's sugar were 8.701 9 million tons and 5.386 4 million tons respectively by the end of June. Sugar markets have entered the decreasing production cycle at home and abroad. Considering the weather conditions, the prospective decline of sugar production and progress of sugarcane harvesting were continuously hyped up in the international market, thus ICE raw sugar price rebounded after hitting the rock bottom, while in the domestic market, as sugar production was gradually declining, considerable profits from imports spurred surge in sugar smuggling, which led to a reduction in both imports and consumption. In addition, due to the fact that the launched of state reserve maize encouraged substitution of starch sugar for sugar, futures price fluctuated violently, whereas the spot price supported by the production cost increased steadily. Looking forward to 2016/17 crushing season, the supply gap in the international sugar market was expected to become narrow. However, the influence of weather conditions and favorable macroeconomic environment will still drive sugar price going upward. Domestic supply and demand which may be mostly supported by import cost prices later was expected to have little change. In the future, we still need to focus attention on the aftermath of the centennial strongest El Nino, including Guangxi ZhuangAutonomous Region of China threatened by floods, the monsoon rainfall situation in India, the alternative influence of El Nino and La Nina in Brazil, the better changes of arid climate in Thailand, as well as the impact of China's sugar industry policy.关键词
食糖价格/产量/进出口/展望/供给不足Key words
sugar price/output/import and export/outlook/supply shortage引用本文复制引用
刘晓雪,宋杰,张宸..2015/16榨季国内外食糖市场与2016/17榨季展望[J].农业展望,2016,(8):8-14,23,8.基金项目
农业部、财政部现代农业(甘蔗)产业技术体系建设专项资金( CARS-20-11B)；教育部人文社科青年基金项目(13YJC790097)；国际农业研究体系“糖料市场、贸易及产业政策研究” （甘蔗）
