长江科学院院报2016，Vol.33Issue(9)：5-9,5.DOI:10.11988/ckyyb.20150639
近53年长三角地区极端降水时空变化分析
Spatio-temporal Variations of Extreme Precipitation in the Yangtze River Delta during 1960-2012
摘要
Abstract
In recent years,the trend of global warming has been more and more serious,and extreme precipitation contributed to the risk of drought and flood disaster in the Yangtze River basin.Daily precipitation data of 34 auto-matic meteorological stations in the Yangtze River delta region from 1960-2012 were used to investigate the features of spatial and temporal variations of extreme precipitation using methods of the trend analysis,Mann-Kendall test and GIS spatial analysis.The main conclusions are as follows:1 )the extreme precipitation threshold limit value was in the range between 30.7mm and 46.7mm,all are heavy rainfall,and some close to rainstorm.The extreme precipitation threshold value presents zonal distribution features,large in north Jiangsu,southwest and southeast Zhejiang,and small in south Jiangsu,north Zhejiang,and Shanghai;2 )the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation has obvious interdecadal differences,characterized by trends of decreasing obviously in early stage and slowly rising in late stage.The precipitation in the Yangtze River delta was more abnormal,and the extreme precip-itation mutations mainly occurred in 1987;3)the frequency and total amount of extreme precipitation were high in the southwest and southeast coastal islands of Zhejiang,and the value of R95T was large mainly in north Jiangsu and Zhejiang's southeast coastal areas;4 )the seasonal change of extreme precipitation frequency reflected the north-south movement of the rain belt in a year,and also reflected the precipitation differences between the coast and the inland.The study also found that the precipitation events in Ganyu station of north Jiangsu,and stations on eastern Zhejiang's coast and island had become extreme,with rainstorm and flooding likely to happen in the future.The probability of drought in Sheyang and its surrounding areas will increase.关键词
长三角地区/极端降水/趋势分析/Mann-Kendall检验/GIS空间分析/时空变化Key words
Yangtze River Delta region/extreme rainfall/trend analysis/Mann-Kendall test/GIS spatial analy-sis/spatial and temporal variations分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
周北平,史建桥,李少魁,陈挺,马丽..近53年长三角地区极端降水时空变化分析[J].长江科学院院报,2016,33(9):5-9,5.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目（41005047）；中国气象局气象探测工程技术研究中心开放课题 （）
