农业现代化研究2016，Vol.37Issue(5)：848-855,8.DOI:10.13872/j.1000-0275.2016.0083
湖北省农户家庭耕地经营规模情景分析--基于系统动力学原理的实证研究
Simulation of the operation scale of household farmland in Hubei Province：An empirical study based on system dynamics
摘要
Abstract
Based on the system dynamics theory and incorporating the grain supply and demand, population, and the causality relationship between the cultivated area for grain and the grain policy adjustment, this paper built a simulation model to analyze the household farmland management scales in Hubei Province. Results show that: 1) the initial projection for Hubei Province shows that Hubei can completely meet the grain self-sufficiency in the future, expand household farmland scales, and gradually realize the scale operations; 2) the open-door population policy will not impose any threats to grain security in the short run and improving cultivated land security baseline, increasing investment per unit of the arable land, and raising the grain planting proportion can help to adjust grain production; 3) although improving cultivated land security baseline has a better adjustment to the grain supply to a certain extent, this form of regulation is not sustainable for agricultural development in the long run; and 4) the rising of natural population growth rate will increase rural population and slow down the expansion of scale operation in grain production. Therefore, the urbanization is the key to the realization of scale operation for grain production in Hubei Province.关键词
系统动力学/仿真/农户耕地/经营规模/粮食安全/湖北省Key words
system dynamics/simulation/household farmland/scale of operation/grain security/Hubei Province分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
王嫚嫚,刘颖,陈实..湖北省农户家庭耕地经营规模情景分析--基于系统动力学原理的实证研究[J].农业现代化研究,2016,37(5):848-855,8.基金项目
国家社会科学基金项目（15BJY099）。@@@@National Social Science Foundation of China (15BJY099) （15BJY099）
